Positive Outlook Amidst Uncertainties
Trade Shows Signs of Rebound from COVID-19, Recovery Still Uncertain
World trade shows signs of bouncing back from a deep, COVID-19 induced slump, but World Trade Organization economists caution that any recovery could be disrupted by the ongoing pandemic effects.
• World merchandise trade volume is forecast to fall by 9.2% in 2020.
• The projected decline is less than the 12.9% drop foreseen in the optimistic scenario from the April trade forecast.
• Trade volume growth should rebound to 7.2%in 2021 but will remain well below the pre-crisis trend.
• Global GDP will fall by 4.8% in 2020 before rising by 4.9% in 2021.
• The trade decline in Asia of 4.5% for exports and 4.4% for imports in 2020 will be smaller than in other regions.
• Downside risks still predominate, particularly if there is a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the coming months.
